Rail Package 6

Following the May 2010 election, the coalition government reviewed high speed rail policy inherited from Labour, but with little enthusiasm for thinking outside the HS2 box created by Andrew Adonis. In fact, the review resulted in the Conservatives ditching their own S-shaped, airport-intensive high speed vision in favour of a modified version of Labour’s scheme. However, under the coalition there have been presentational changes, with HS2 now marketed as a sort of panacea for capacity shortfalls on the existing network.

HS2 would certainly produce large amounts of additional rail capacity, but most of it would be unusable. Traditionally, the costs of meeting peak demand on rail services have been essentially confined to the rolling stock parc. That is, in the middle of the day and at weekends, large numbers of trains are stored out of use, in sidings. But with High Speed Two, the costs of meeting peak demand on rail services are no longer confined to the size of the train fleet; they are spread to the whole railway, in the form of the massive additional fixed infrastructure of the HS2 trunk. Most of the HS2-generated capacity (on both HS2 and the West Coast line) would be unused, most of the time. Given that the £17 billion stage one investment would “free up capacity” on just one existing line (the West Coast Main Line) and only from the year 2026, there seems to be a pressing need to examine the potential of current assets.

The Atkins rail interventions studies commissioned by the government seem to have been designed to bolster the case for HS2. For example, in its Chiltern line upgrade, Atkins included billions of pounds of unnecessary infrastructure (such as a £3 billion tunnel at Seer Green).

None of the five Atkins Rail Packages represent a best value approach to railway planning. What’s needed is a “Rail Package 6” – a package that could be implemented incrementally, providing capacity where and when it is needed.

Possible components of a low risk, balanced, and scalable rail upgrade package.

West Coast Main Line

(i) Creation of a fourth track from Attleborough to Brinklow.
(ii) Grade separation at the Ledburn crossover.
(iii) Introduction of high capacity signalling.
(iv) New outer suburban rolling stock.¹
(v) Modification of the intercity fleet.²
(vi) New shoulder peak tarification.³

Chiltern Main Line

(i) Upgrading and electrification of the Chiltern Main Line between London Paddington and the West Midlands. Unlike Atkins’ proposals, this would not include unnecessary infrastructure, such as the Banbury by-pass.
(ii) Modification of Birmingham Snow Hill station, to allow use by intercity trains of up to 16 coaches.
(iii) Construction of an interchange at Old Oak Common, allowing transfers between intercity rail, local rail (including Crossrail), buses, and coaches. Platforms would allow 16 coach trains to run to the West Midlands.⁴

Aylesbury Line

Upgrading and electrification of the London Marylebone to Aylesbury track, with commuter service extended over the Varsity Line to Bletchley.⁵

Midland Main Line

(i) Upgrading and electrification between Bedford, Derby, Nottingham, Sheffield and Leeds.
(ii) Reopening and electrification of the Peak line between the Midland Main Line trunk and Stockport.

East Coast Main Line

(i) Upgrading and electrification of the Nottingham to Grantham line.
(ii) Electrification between Leeds and Church Fenton.

Great Central Main Line

Safeguarding of the remaining parts of the formation of the Great Central Railway south of Leicester, for future rail use.

Notes

1. New outer suburban trains could be designed for 200-225 km/h operation, to avoid wasting WCML path capacity. By adopting full width inter-carriage connections, there would be potential for these trains to carry a larger number of passengers.

2. Modification of the Pendolino fleet could be limited to converting one first class carriage to second class. There doesn’t appear to be any requirement to extend formations to 12 cars, because of all the additional capacity created by other measures.

3. Tarification could potentially better manage use of outer suburban trains in the peak period, replacing the binary peak-or-off-peak system.

4. There would be no requirement for Great Western trains to stop at Old Oak Common. Passengers travelling from Bristol to Birmingham would be encouraged to use the existing direct cross-country railway, rather than changing trains in London, as proposed by Greengauge 21.

5. Not Milton Keynes Central.