Archive for July 2015
HS2 and its operating surplus
In Western Europe and North America, passenger rail operations require subsidy, but according to the British Government Response to the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee [High Speed 2 report],
- around 90 million passenger trips would be made on HS2 each year
- and, on a standalone basis, it would generate an annual ‘surplus’ of £2,800 million.
So the government appears to be claiming that each HS2 roundtrip would bring in £62 more in revenue, than its cost of production.
However, the Department for Transport has refused to provide any information on projected HS2 operating costs and revenues.
How does the HS2 ‘£62 surplus’ compare with other lines in Britain? In the year 2013 / 2014, train operators Virgin Trains West Coast and Southeastern received subsidies of £0.047 and £0.124 per passenger mile respectively. So each return journey from Manchester to London would have generated a ‘negative surplus’ of ~£17.
HS2 and economic output
In a report commissioned by the Department for Transport in 2013, KPMG estimated that HS2 would create £15 billion annually in increased economic output, with phase one accounting for 40 per cent of that benefit (£6 billion per annum).
However, a ‘new mathematical model of human interactions’ predicts that HS2 phase one would create only £3.6 billion annually in increased economic output; less than one per cent of the current output of Birmingham and London.
[HS2 and Crossrail: Scientists predict the economic effect of major rail projects, Simon Levey, Imperial College, 31 July 2015]
[…] Dr [Aaron] Sim carried out the study with Professor Michael Stumpf, also from the Department of Life Sciences, Professor Mauricio Barahona, from the Department of Mathematics, and Professor Sophia Yaliraki, from the Department of Chemistry at Imperial.
They say the findings should be used to help politicians and civic planers to put in place the most efficient, widely beneficial and fairest infrastructure.
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HS2 and West Yorkshire, part five
The siting of Curzon Street and Bickenhill stations suggests that Birmingham Chamber of Commerce do not see a need for a high speed station to be be well integrated with the existing rail network.
But West & North Yorkshire Chamber of Commerce seems to have a somewhat different view. It wants redevelopment of the existing Leeds City station to accommodate HS2 (instead of building a separate terminus at New Lane), and extensive modifications to the classic railway network in the locality.
[WNY Chamber position paper, July 2015]
[…] In late 2014, Chancellor Osborne announced plans for HS3 (now TransNorth rail) as a solution for east-west rail connectivity (Liverpool to Sheffield, Hull and Newcastle via Manchester and/or Leeds) – this brings with it additional implications for Leeds’ city centre station and presents further opportunities to rethink its location and approaches.
[…] As highlighted by Sir David Higgins (March 2014), any [West Yorkshire] high speed station must be fully integrated with the existing rail network to ensure the benefits of HS2 and TransNorth are spread throughout the sub-region.
WNY Chamber seems to have ‘borrowed’ proposals such as the Aire valley rail link from HSUK‘s Yorkshire Rail strategy, but judging by ‘Figure 6’ above, it seems to be less concerned about connectivities outside of Leeds itself.
Obviously, the development favoured by WNY Chamber would involve extensive disruption to the existing rail network. The claim that building HS2 would be ‘less disruptive than upgrading the existing railway’, does not have a factual basis.
HS2 and the Rail Usage Drivers Dataset
The Government Response to the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee HS2 report referred to the Rail Usage Drivers Dataset, “a dataset of disaggregate ticket sales data between the years 1994/1995 and 2013/14, for over 20,000 flows and 6 ticket type categories”.
[Department for Transport statement on the Rail Usage Drivers Dataset, July 2015]
This ticket sale information is combined at a disaggregate level with data on possible drivers of rail demand (including population, employment, GVA and households) for the purpose of estimating elasticities using regressions. These elasticities are then used in rail forecasting.
The ticket sales data within RUDD cannot be shared as they are owned by the Train Operating Companies (TOCs) and held by the Department under a duty of confidentiality, in accordance with the National Rail Franchise Terms in place between the Secretary of State and the train operators. The National Rail Franchise Terms can be found published either in or alongside the franchise agreements via the following webpage:
Under section 41 of the Freedom of Information Act 2000, information held under such a duty is subject to an absolute exemption from disclosure. […]
The Government Response to the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee report contained aggregate data that was sourced from the RUDD database. These data were released with the agreement of the TOCs concerned for the purpose of the Government’s response to this report.
What isn’t clear, is why the government should have the exclusive right to access and use RUDD data in support of its own favoured policies (such as HS2). For example, statistics from RUDD might also clear up exactly how many of the “long distance” trips on Inter City West Coast, actually are long distance.
Ignite, accelerate, re-tune
Greater Birmingham and Solihull local enterprise partnership’s “Getting our people ready for HS2” report states that the number of HS2 construction jobs is unlikely to greatly exceed 10,000 in any one year.
Extending HS2 to Scotland is “not feasible”
A joint study by the British and Scottish governments is understood to conclude that extending HS2 to Scotland from northern England is “not feasible”, the Scotsman reported.
‘Deal on track to bring fast rail link to Scotland’, The Scotsman, 26 July 2015
SNP press release ‘UK Gov must back HS2 for Scotland’, 13 Nov 2013
The strategic objectives of HS2, part two
The HS2 project was established by Andrew Adonis in 2009. What its strategic objectives were at that time, is unclear.
So far as can be established, the HS2 scheme came first, with its strange strategic objectives following much later.
Can anyone find an earlier reference to them, than October 2013?
HS2’s Strategic Objectives [Oct 2013]
=====================================Government has identified two principal objectives for High Speed rail, as set out in the Strategic Case, published in October 2013, as follows:
* The capacity objective is to create sufficient capacity to provide for long term demand for rail travel and improve rail network resilience and reliability, ensuring that people and goods are able to make the journeys they want.
* The connectivity objective is to improve journey times, making travel quicker, easier, more punctual and more convenient for people and goods, including supporting end-to-end journeys with effective integration and interchange between transport modes and with good connections, including with major airports, for international travel.
Get ready to dissemble
Birmingham local enterprise partnership is seeking £3.3 billion of government “investment” to “exploit the economic opportunity offered by the planned HS2 rail link with London”, the Financial Times reported (paywall).
[Birmingham seeks £3.3bn boost to exploit HS2 rail link, John Murray Brown, FT, July 23, 2015]
The Greater Birmingham and Solihull local enterprise partnership (LEP) wants to improve transport connections, invest in supply chain companies and create or safeguard 100,000 jobs – 10 per cent of which would be for local unemployed people.
[…] The LEP’s HS2 plan, which was published on Thursday, envisages an interchange station at Solihull, accessing Birmingham airport and the National Exhibition Centre, as well as a terminus in Birmingham city centre at Curzon Street.
[…] It is seeking £2.9bn to develop Curzon Street and Solihull stations, and invest in related infrastructure. On top of this, £366m is earmarked to support business and the supply chain.
[…] The LEP says it is now engaged in an “outreach programme” in North America, Asia and Europe to explain the benefits of HS2 and persuade businesses to locate their European and international headquarters in the area, and not just move operational and production facilities.
At the time of writing, the following ‘information’ is available on the GBSLEP website.
[GBSLEP]
Commissioned by GBSLEP, the Midlands HS2 Growth Strategy sets out the opportunities that the arrival of HS2 affords the region. It aims to leverage the benefits delivered by HS2 to drive local growth on a nationally-significant scale over and above the construction of HS2, through targeted packages of interventions that are tailored to the local context. It will ultimately drive job creation, increase productivity and generate net national growth, such that the investment will pay for itself over time.
The interventions – focussed on the three strategic pillars of People, Business and Place as set out in GBSLEP’s Strategy for Growth – comprise the following:
Getting our people ready, with a Skills Action Plan that will ensure that local people are inspired and skilled to take up the economic opportunities presented by HS2 and the associated infrastructure investment
Getting our businesses ready with:
a programme that will develop and support all supply chain companies locally and nationally, to capitalise on the opportunities presented by the HS2 programme
a strategy to ensure that the region maximises its appeal to prospective overseas and domestic investors, leveraging the investment in HS2 and associated infrastructure
Getting our places ready by providing:
“mission critical” infrastructure and significant public realm enhancements to maximise the potential of the station sites at Birmingham Curzon and the UK Central Interchange in Solihull creating two world class points of arrival for the Midlands
A regional connectivity package of targeted and prioritised transport schemes, which magnify and spread the benefits of HS2 across the Midlands
The Strategy will ensure that the wider region will benefit from radically improved national and international connectivity. The two HS2 stations and Birmingham Airport, with its huge potential and ability to open up access to key international markets, will drive new areas for regeneration, housing and business growth across the Midlands. The major investment in region-wide connectivity will provide access to significant employment and training opportunities for local residents, and is ultimately capable of delivering:
104,000 created and safeguarded jobs – with 10% of all jobs created for local residents who are currently unemployed
Increase the number of people qualified to NVQ Level 4 or equivalent to the national average of 36%
2,000 apprenticeships
700 business supported to take advantage of the opportunities
£14bn additional economic output
2,000,000 of the region’s population connected to HS2 by public transport
The plan to connect “2,000,000 of the region’s population to HS2 by public transport” includes spending £400 million on a shonky tramline to Bickenhill.
