Archive for December 2011
Lloyd Northover is a company that uses creative communications to help its clients move their organisations forward, fulfilling their dreams as well as their goals. Great, if those dreams involve having passengers miss their bus, using a massive ad hoarding to obstruct their view.
There is a kind of reality distortion field that permeates infrastructure planning in Britain. In this fifth dimension, ‘visionaries’ and lobbyists put forward ideas such as
- ‘one bus equals 78 cars‘,
- ‘high speed rail could cut carbon emissions‘, and
- a new railway, that would not go to Nottingham, would create thousands of jobs there.
Another manifestation of reality distortion fieldism is the scheme to four-track the Birmingham to Coventry railway. Unlike much of the West Coast Main Line, the Stafford – Birmingham – Rugby line is only twin-track (i.e., one track for each direction). South of Birmingham, omnistation (stopping) trains are constrained by the need to accommodate longer distance freight and passenger services, resulting in sub-optimal timetabling.
In February 2011, Centro stated that four-tracking on the Birmingham to Coventry route was needed ‘in addition‘ to high speed rail, and their Rail Development Plan proposed a second pair of tracks between Proof House Junction (east of New Street station) and Birmingham Airport.
Four-tracking from Beechwood tunnel (between Tile Hill and Berkswell) to Stechford at a cost of £900 million was proposed in Atkins’ Rail Package 2 ‘alternative’ to HS2. Before it dropped its support for high speed rail, the Green Party also favoured four-tracking the line, and its use by HS2 trains serving the West Midlands.
The West Midlands is an area where cost-effective and relatively straightforward rail schemes – such as the Benson Road and Camp Hill chords – have been held up for years, because of lack of municipal support. So the eccentric Coventry four tracking concept, with its much bigger price tag and environmental impact, is unlikely to get anywhere.
I don’t see how anyone could make a case for spending £900-plus million to enable more stopping trains to Adderley Park, Lea Hall, Hampton-in-Arden (etc). The numbers don’t come anywhere close to stacking up. The best value approach would entail improving bus services to these places, and perhaps closing Adderley Park altogether.
In January 2011, Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority retired its last diesel bus.
In an urban area where diesel buses began operating in 1940, the MTA now has 2,221 buses powered by compressed natural gas, as well as one electric bus and six gasoline-electric hybrids.
Transit officials estimate that the elimination of diesel engines has reduced the release of cancer-causing particulates from the bus fleet by 80% and greenhouse gases by about 300,000 pounds a day in one of the smoggiest areas of the country.
MTA officials say that compressed natural gas buses cost more to buy and maintain than those powered by diesel but that the increased expenses are offset somewhat over the long run by lower fuel costs.
“Not only is this an important step for air quality, it sets the bar for other transportation agencies to follow,” said Joe Lyou, president of the Coalition for Clean Air, a statewide organization based in Los Angeles. “Now when an MTA bus pulls up, you don’t run away anymore from the huge cloud of exhaust.”
Though the MTA has converted its fleet, the agency still contracts with private bus lines that rely on diesel fuel. Of the 187 private buses, 82 have diesel engines, but transit officials say those should be phased out in the next several years.
In Great Britain, road public transport in the big cities is dependent on diesel powered vehicles. Many of the 2,000-plus buses in the West Midlands Urban Area spend a lot of time stationary (or moving very slowly in traffic) with engines on, and the consequence is very bad local air quality.
Eighteen diesel/battery hybrid buses are to be introduced to NXWM service in early 2012, and as part of the council’s ‘Vision for Movement‘, the most polluting buses would be effectively excluded from Birmingham city centre. But these measures in themselves are not going to make a difference overall.
The reality is that the average bus carries about 9 passengers, so emissions per passenger kilometre are not something to be especially proud of. So long as high frequency bus services (e.g., Birmingham – Kings Heath – Maypole) remain operated by diesel buses, there is going to be bad air.
What’s needed is fewer silly diagrams, and more rational thinking. There is a strong case for converting most of Birmingham’s trunk bus routes to trolleybus operation, but this would require the support and involvement of the local authority. Whether the civic leadership has the necessary perspicuity, remains to be seen.
Earlier this year, Centro, the West Midlands transport authority, set up the GoHS2 campaign at its Summer Lane headquarters, to “bring HS2 to the West Midlands”.
But the West Midlands *already has* high speed rail – with its London Pendolino trains matching the Frankfurt – Cologne ICE in speed, and more than matching it in frequency and number of through trains.
At the time of writing, the GoHS2 website has 56 supporters, most of whom seem to be local authority or Atkins staff (unless supporters ‘David Bull’, ‘Peter Bethell’, etc, just happen to share the names of council staff).
The GoHS2 activity on social media has been no less bizarre. A recent example is the comment that “HS2 opponents want to scrap first class (higher revenue) for standard but at same time want to ‘relieve burden’ on taxpayer”.
This is a strange comment for Centro to make, because none of the trains on West Midlands local services (Straford-upon-Avon, Walsall, Stourbridge, etc) offer *any* First class accommodation. When these services did offer First, there was no “higher revenue”, because those seats were empty. Chiltern Railways have also done away with traditional First class, in favour of experiments with other types of product segmentation.
Far from being some kind of cash cow, specifying four First class coaches for each nine-coach West Coast Pendolino was a serious error. As can be seen from comparing a First and
Second Standard class Pendolino carriage, revenue per seat has to be 65% higher even *at the same occupancy level*.
So the future role and price differential of First class needs to be examined, but it’s a more a matter of economics than capacity. There is a very large amount of capacity waiting to be used (e.g., the Chiltern Line volume could be expanded by 800%+, through relatively small investment). And 16-coach intercity passenger trains are already operating on the British railway network.
Most bus fares in Greater Birmingham are going up next month, announced National Express West Midlands (NXWM), operator of most services.
Um, quelle surprise. Virtually every January, NXWM fares go up. In fact, in some years, there’s been two increases. And there was a stealth increase when the company replaced the stage-based ticketing system, inherited from the municipal operators, with just standard and ‘short hop’ fares.
Anyway, here’s the price-hikin’ press release:
National Express West Midlands is changing its fare structure in line with inflation from 2 Jan 2012 and trialing a new £1 city hop ticket.
The new trial city hop fare will allow people to get around Birmingham city centre using the bus for a pound. The ticket will be available for Single trips wholly within the middle city ring road in Birmingham, including the places shown on the diagram to the right.
The new fares reflect rising business costs and will support further reinvestment into the West Midlands bus network during 2012, building on the arrival of almost 100 new vehicles including green hybrids in 2011.
The change to existing tickets will mean single tickets increase by 10p, Daysaver by 20p and cards by 50p a week.
Fare increases have been kept to a minimum and West Midland bus prices remain amongst the most competitive of any major UK city. Monthly Direct debit is the cheapest method of travelling and provides unlimited bus travel for the equivalent of £1.60 per day.
Peter Coates, Managing Director for National Express Bus UK, said:
“We realise these are tough times and have kept the increase to a minimum with the average increase in line with inflation. The price rise will allow us to continue our significant investment into the region’s bus network and meet rising business costs.”
“Fares in the West Midlands are among the most competitive of any major UK city and our focus in 2012 is improving the quality of journey for all our customers. This year we have introduced almost 100 new vehicles to the network and have plans to sustain this investment in 2012.”
“We operate an exact fare policy for speed and security so it’s important that customers are made aware of the change well in advance. Information will be displayed on buses and on our website.”
New bus fares from 2 January, 2011
West Midlands Cash Fares Current New Birmingham City Hop – NEW n/a £1.00 Adult Short Hop £1.60 £1.70 Adult Single £1.80 £1.90 Adult Daysaver £3.60 £3.80 Family Daysaver £7.80 £8.00 West Midlands Travelcards Regional – 1 Week £14.50 £15.00 Regional Direct Debit (Monthly) £46.00 £48.00 Regional 4 Week £52.00 £54.00 Black Country – 1 Week £13.00 £13.50 Black Country Direct
£40.00 £42.00 Black Country – 4 Week £45.50 £47.50
The city hop fare won’t “allow people to get around Birmingham city centre using the bus for a pound”, because the bus routeing and network planning doesn’t anticipate or facilitate such journeys. Effectively all bus services entering central Birmingham are radial (city-to-suburb); direct cross-city travel without a change of bus is not on the menu. And in any event, a single bus ticket is not transferable onto another NXWM bus.
If anything, the situation regards travel across the city centre corona is likely to get worse, with the ‘Connected City’ reorganisation of buses (to make way for Midland Metro to run along Corporation Street), seemingly drawn up on the back of a fag packet.
It’s interesting to compare the NXWM fares with those of Paris. For example, a single ticket bought on the RATP bus costs €1.90, but a t+ ticket bought off-bus beforehand costs €1.70, or €12.50 for ten. What’s more, the t+ ticket is valid for inter-bus transfers within the city, for 90 minutes between the first and last validation. (At the time of writing £1 = €1.20 or thereabouts.)
The new service aims to ‘boost business confidence and support new employment opportunities in the area at the same time as Pfizer withdraws from its Sandwich site.’
At the Kent Rail Summit at County Hall, Leader of Kent County Council Paul Carter announced their support for the new peak service for rail travellers from Sandwich and Deal which will slash the journey time to London to approximately 90 minutes.
It will provide 3 trains to London in the morning leaving Sandwich at 0551, 0617 and 0647 and calling at Deal 5 minutes later. Trains will return from St Pancras at 1740 and 1840.
The cost of this new service is approximately £151,000, but costs will reduce the more that the services are used. KCC is also lobbying the Department for Transport for an exemption to the current franchise agreement which will make further savings on the cost.
KCC Leader and Chairman of the Sandwich Economic Development Task Force Paul Carter stated:
“Journey times to Sandwich and Deal will be slashed by the introduction of this new High Speed service which will provide an immediate boost to business and job prospects in the area and has long been called for by local residents.
“We’ve worked closely with Southeastern, local MPs and Dover District Council to secure the service at minimum cost. At a time of exceptional need for the area with the exit of Pfizer in 2012, we were determined to provide new high speed links which would support local businesses and attract new investment into the area. It’s great news and a real boost to Sandwich and Deal.”
If the subsidy provides trains from East Kent in the morning and trains from London in the evening, how does that “support new employment opportunities in the area“?
High speed rail services are already heavily subsidised by central government. So what is the rationale for prioritising additional council funding for HS1 over rural bus services, or nurseries? HS1 accounts for just 5% of Southeastern’s passenger numbers, and its importance to wider London and South East transport is miniscule.
Having taken evidence on the Thameslink (trains) Programme, the House of Commons transport committee has now published its report containing conclusions and recommendations both for the UK rolling stock market
1. Although it may not be feasible or desirable to smooth out completely peaks and troughs in procurement there is scope for the DfT to ensure that there is a steadier flow of opportunities to UK-based manufacturers and the supply chain. (Paragraph 15)
2. We recommend that the Government clarify how it intends to use Network Rail’s passenger rolling stock RUS in ensuring that there is a steadier flow of procurements in future as well as clearer information to industry about the work which the DfT expects to initiate via operating firms or generate itself. We also recommend that the Government clarify whether the medium-term procurement plans mentioned in the Chancellor of the Exchequer’s autumn statement will include a plan for rolling stock. In the meantime, we would encourage the Government to assist the UK train building sector in finding opportunities for work before the next major train procurement projects are completed. (Paragraph 16)
and for the Thameslink process itself.
3. We recommend that the Government explain how the measures announced in the Chancellor’s autumn statement to improve procurement practices will achieve a more strategic approach to large-scale procurement and publish an implementation timetable. (Paragraph 23)
4. There would now appear to be few defenders of the previous Government’s decision to exclude socio-economic criteria from the Thameslink procurement. We note that it would not have been possible for the terms of the contract to have been amended, following the change of Government in May 2010, without starting the procurement afresh with a new invitation to tender. Looking ahead, we fully support the Government’s intention to have a “sharper focus on the UK’s strategic interest” in major public procurements. We hope that this new approach to procurement does not come too late for the Bombardier plant in Derby. (Paragraph 24)
5. It is hard to escape the conclusion that Siemens’ A+ credit rating made a significant contribution to its success in winning the Thameslink procurement. Omitting credit ratings from the evaluation criteria for future rolling stock procurements, beginning with Crossrail, is a sensible step. We have a wider concern, however, that bundling train manufacture and financing together in procurement exercises will skew the market towards larger multinational firms, possibly at the expense of excellence in train design and domestic manufacturing. We recommend that the Government work with the railway industry to establish how train manufacturers can create finance partnerships which offer good value to the taxpayer whilst promoting long-term best value. (Paragraph 29)
6. We would expect the DfT to take a robust attitude to any further allegations of corruption involving Siemens, or any other firm it contracts with, and not to hold back from excluding firms from procurement exercises where there is sound evidence of corruption. (Paragraph 33)
7. We think that it would be in the public interest for the procurement process to be independently reviewed and we have written to the Comptroller and Auditor General to ask him to undertake this work and to report to Parliament before summer 2012 (Paragraph 38)
8. If the Government proceeds to sign a contract with Siemens we recommend that it publish the reasons for favouring Siemens over Bombardier and the difference in the cost of the two bids. (Paragraph 39)
I don’t think these recommendations are going to come close to solving the shortcomings of rolling stock procurement, but perhaps they are the best that can be expected. Politicians such as Ed Miliband (who spoke of Bombardier “being sold down the river by this government”) showed little to no interest when factories such as Metro-Cammell were shuttered, or when huge orders were handed to and , etc.
It’s not clear how closely the size of Bombardier’s Derby workforce is related to loss of the Thameslink contract, how ‘British’ its trains are, or even how ‘British’ they could be. Because huge parts of the Derby rolling stock works were razed after its privatisation, Bombardier has long been reliant on factories in Germany and Belgium to do a lot of its manufacturing.