Archive for August 2019
Usefully dismissive Jim
In a November 2013 Greengauge 21 blogpost, rail lobbyist Jim Steer disparaged ‘attempts’ to ‘re-define’ costs of the HS2 scheme ‘ever-upwards’ (with £14 billion of extra contingency added to the “actual” cost of £28 billion).
But in August 2019 – following press reports that the actual cost of HS2 had gone ever upwards, and could vastly exceed the ‘contingency-padded’ £56 billion budget – Greengauge / Jim published a blogpost which completely contradicted their earlier position.
Greengauge 21 spokesperson explains whether additional contingency should be included in the cost of HS2
Momentum against the HS2 project is growing
Spiralling costs, severe environmental damage and unproven use cases mean rumours of failure around high speed rail network project HS2 are growing, Railway Technology reported. Many argue the project’s money should instead be funnelled into improving current services (29 August 2019).
Most outrageous claims, by Doug
When Douglas Oakervee was chairman of HS2 Ltd, he said he was “confident we will keep within” the £42.6 billion budget, opponents had ambushed the project with “most outrageous claims” on Twitter, and “It would be catastrophic for the UK [if HS2 were cancelled].”
[Douglas Oakervee: ‘I think the name HS2 is unfortunate’, Mark Leftly meets Douglas Oakervee, The Independent, Sunday 8 September 2013]
[DO:] “What it is going to mean is that the services on the West Coast Mainline initially and East Coast Mainline will rapidly deteriorate. We estimate on the mainline up to Birmingham that for every 10 people seated there will be 10 standing, and you get the same pattern having developed to Manchester by the mid-2020s or 2030.”
[…]
[ML:] He makes several assertions without providing much evidence to substantiate his claims. For example, he claims the consultants’ fees, which The Independent on Sunday revealed earlier this year, were in excess of their initial budgets, well before their contracts had come to an end, are “still within” HS2’s own estimates.He also makes the rather bold claim that HS2 has “underspent” in quite a few areas. Asked to explain, he says the details are “commercially privileged”, and glares back: “I’ve said, we’re underspent.”
What he forgets is that it is difficult to take HS2’s word on costs as gospel. Earlier this year, the organisation continually denied it had any IT problems. It was only when presented with its own board minutes proving that its systems were plagued by flaws that Alison Munro conceded it was an area “under review”.
Given his history with the project, one might wonder how Mr Oakervee could deliver the ‘independent and rigorous review’ of HS2 that the government put him in charge of, last week. Has the Cabinet Office got some kind of machine that they can load Doug into, to completely change his mindset, while he’s doing his ‘reviewing’?
Sin HS2 posiblemente Talgo
Sources close to Spanish train building company Talgo say ‘plans to bring more than 1,000 jobs to Fife’ with a £40 million factory at Longannet could still happen ‘if the controversial HS2 scheme is scrapped’.
[ Craig Smith, The Courier, August 26 2019]
[…] The Courier has been assured the Talgo project is still very much on track, with a spokesman insisting the plant is not dependent on it winning the contract to supply the fleet for HS2.
“Recent announcements regarding a review of HS2 are a matter for the UK Government,” the spokesman said.
“Although HS2 is a very important contract, Talgo’s plans for Longannet are not solely reliant on it.”
‘Defaffinating’ northern rail
Although it is not true to say that rail lines on the prime routes are already dominant in those transport corridors, concentration on expanding the existing large traffic flows, such as London – Birmingham, London – Manchester, London – Leeds, etc will not achieve a major modal shift – mainly because rail already has a significant slice of the market on those routes which, by themselves, do not constitute the majority of passenger travel in the UK (noted Professor Roger Kemp in his paper ‘Scope for reduction in transport CO2 emissions by modal shift’).
However, this idea of “expanding the existing large traffic flows” lies at the heart of the proposed HS2 railway. Another fundamental problem with HS2 is its inability to free up (or create) more capacity for local travel in conurbations like Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds, and Nottingham.
‘Northern powerhouse rail’ is supposed to reduce the rail journey time between Manchester and Leeds by spending billions of pounds on a new line, but as Professor Kemp noted, the existing weekday service is four ‘reasonably fast’ trains per hour.
The problem is generally not the in-vehicle time on the intercity portion of such trips, but the ‘faff’ and unreliability associated with real point-to-point travel, which doesn’t start and finish at big-city ‘hauptbahnhof’ stations.
Sadly, these facts are completely lost on many northern and London politicians, and public sector bodies like Transport for the North.
Seniority complex
On 22 August a frail-looking Doug Oakervee, chairman of the ‘independent’ HS2 review, was taken to Birmingham to hear from local bigwigs and special interests. ITV Central News reporter Mark Gough attempted to interview him outside UCE, but Mr Oakervee was ushered away by a ‘minder’. (Hopefully a minder, that is.)
Mr Oakervee was apparently pushed out as chairman of HS2 Ltd a few years ago, because he was considered no longer to be up to the job. Heaven knows what inspired Boris Johnson to install him as chairman of this ‘review’, and all that that entails (like having to listen to Maria Machancoses, head of Midlands Connect).
Northern powerhouse rail and commutability
In June 2019, Boris Johnson ‘pledged‘ he would be the PM who builds ‘Northern Powerhouse Rail’.
But is the ‘Northern Powerhouse Rail’ concept a good fit with travel patterns in the north of England, and the levels of transport demand seen there?
The available information suggests that the spatial distribution of people — and the diffuse travel patterns — limit the role that rail could play in northern commuting. Spending £39 billion on ‘Northern powerhouse rail’ would be very unlikely to change that.
The best opportunities for rail would come from creating S-Bahn systems in Manchester and Leeds, but this would require the existing, NPR-focused, policy to be torn up.
NPR is supposed to enable people to ‘commute from one city to another’, but most people do not live in city centres.
Consider a more realistic inter-city commute, from Crosby (Merseyside) to Salford Quays (Greater Manchester) using existing rail, and new-build ‘HS3 Northern powerhouse rail’.
1. Crosby (Merseyside) to Salford Quays (Greater Manchester) using existing rail
Outbound commuting activity steps
1. Walk / bus to Crosby station.
2. Wait.
3. Train (Merseyrail) to Central station.
4. Walk to Lime Street station.
5. Wait.
6. Train to Eccles station.
7. Wait.
8. Tram to Salford Quays.
9. Walk to end destination.
2. Crosby (Merseyside) to Salford Quays (Greater Manchester) using ‘Northern powerhouse rail’
(For the purposes of this comparison, it is assumed the Liverpool NPR station is at Lime Street, and the Manchester NPR station is at Piccadilly.)
Outbound commuting activity steps
1. Walk / bus to Crosby station.
2. Wait.
3. Train (Merseyrail) to Central station.
4. Walk to Lime Street station.
5. Wait.
6. Train (Npr) to Piccadilly station.
7. Wait.
8. Tram to Salford Quays.
9. Walk to end destination.
It should be apparent that for journeys like this, Northern powerhouse rail would make very little difference to commutability.
Independently led by Doug
On 21 August the government announced an ‘independent’ review into the HS2 programme led by, er, former HS2 Ltd chairman Doug ‘Captain Invisible’ Oakervee.
[Government announces independent review into HS2 programme, 21 Aug 2019, gov.uk]
Douglas Oakervee, who has built up considerable knowledge on a wide range of major projects over the course of his 60 year career, will lead the review and will work with Lord Berkeley as his deputy. They will be supported by a panel of experts, bringing together a range of perspectives from business, academia and the transport sector to ensure an independent, thorough and objective assessment of the project. Panellists will each be consulted on the report’s conclusions.
The terms of reference published today confirm that the independently-led government review will look at whether and how HS2 should proceed, using all existing evidence on the project to consider:
its benefits and impacts
affordability and efficiency
deliverability and scope
its phasing, including its relationship with Northern Powerhouse Rail
This review would seem to be primarily for electioneering purposes, as the high speed rail project is least popular with ‘Conservative-leaning’ voters, according to YouGov.
