Nonsense bunched up closely

According to Network Rail, HS2 phase one would ‘free up space‘ for ‘faster, more frequent trains‘ on the West Coast Main Line.

And according to ‘Rail’ magazine writer Gareth Dennis (@PermanentRail), ‘Once HS2 is operating, services on the existing railway can bunch up nice and closely together, more like Crossrail or Thameslink. […] Capacity can leap upwards.’

However, the October 2013 strategic case for HS2 is based on the use of the West Coast fast lines being reduced, not increased.

So much for ‘faster, more frequent’ trains on the existing railway, and ‘services bunching up nice and closely together’.

How much would the use of the West Coast fast lines have to be reduced, with HS2?

• At Euston, the number of classic platforms would be cut, and one of the approach tracks taken out.
• The fast lines between London and Milton Keynes would become more of a mixed traffic railway than they are today,
• with increased commingling of commuter and intercity trains,
• and more flat crossing manoeuvres to and from the slow lines.

According to the July 2017 strategic case and PFM v7.1 modelling, the peak hour ex-Euston commuter fast capacity with-HS2 would be 5,300 seats, with more trains heading to Northampton.

However, the Department for Transport are declining to say where these trains would transition to the slow lines in order to get to Northampton.

On the evidence available, the modelled classic service provision in HS2’s July 2017 strategic case seems unlikely to be achievable.