Most seats are empty, most of the time

On 5 July 2012, the Department for Transport released its year 2011 rail passenger numbers and crowding statistics. Based on counts carried out by franchised train operators last autumn, they represent passengers on a ‘typical weekday’ on national rail services.

The figures

Arrivals and departures in selected cities

In passengers handled, Birmingham tops the provincial cities, but its total is less than some individual London stations (e.g., Victoria). Cardiff traffic is about of a third of Birmingham’s, and Manchester, about four fifths.

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Peak arrivals and departures by London Zone 1 station, 2011

The busiest station is London Bridge, with morning peak arrivals topping 140,000 — about four times the volume seen at Euston. With fewer platforms, and just two access tracks, Fenchurch Street handles roughly the same number of peak passengers as Euston.

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Passengers in excess of capacity, London and South East

The count of passengers in excess of capacity — PiXC — is used as a sort of crowding indicator, but there are some quirks in how it is calculated.

Although the number of rail passengers has risen considerably since the year 2000, there seems to have been a slight improvement overall on the count of passengers in excess of capacity. On London and South East (LSE) services, morning peak passengers in excess was 5.1% in 2000, and 4.0% in 2011. Afternoon peak was 1.8% in 2000, and 2.3% in 2011.

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Arrivals and departures, London Zone 1

Arrivals and departures by hour of the day, London Zone 1 (source: DfT)

In essence, most seats on trains are empty, most of the time.

Notes

1. The Department’s figures are for services as a group. The numbers for particular trains are deemed ‘commercially confidential’. But given the amount of public subsidy provided to the railway, there would be seem to be a strong argument for disclosing loadings on individual trains.

2. The large variations in demand across the day present difficult resource challenges. At government level, it might be worth putting more effort into policies aimed at smoothing demand peaks.

3. The count of passengers carried in excess of capacity has not worsened in the last decade, although passenger numbers have risen. Running more and longer trains is a viable strategy for many routes.

4. On lines north of London, the volume of passengers does not support the notion of building HS2 on capacity grounds. (In the HS2 Ltd Economic Case, most benefits take the form of time savings.)

5. Capacity is a more pressing issue on corridors such as the Great Eastern, and the South West Main Line. Construction of a tramway along the Chelsea — Hackney axis, extending into the near suburbs, could provide relief in a shorter timescale than ‘Crossrail 2’.