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GB travel forecasts to the year 2040

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[House of Commons]

Department for Transport
Travel
Asked by Dr Julian Huppert (Cambridge)
Asked on: 18 November 2014

214853
To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, what predictions are made by the National Transport Model from 2015 onwards for the (a) average number of trips and stages made annually per person in England and (b) average length of trips by transport mode in the (i) low, (ii) medium and (iii) high growth scenarios.

Answered by: Mr Robert Goodwill
Answered on: 24 November 2014

Holding answer received on 21 November 2014

Forecasts of trip by mode and distance were last published by the Department in Road Transport Forecasts 2011 at

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/4243/road-transport-forecasts-2011-results.pdf

The Department has more recently in 2013 produced estimates for the whole of GB using the National Transport Model (NTM).

The trip information has not been published but is set out in the tables below.

Average Trips per person annually by mode (GB, RTF13 central forecast)
Year Walk Cycle Car
Dvr
Car
Pgr
Bus Rail Total
2015 307.4 22.1 447.6 231.8 86.3 24.4 1,119.7
2020 302.4 21.1 465.3 225.8 80.0 23.7 1,118.2
2025 298.0 20.1 483.8 219.0 73.3 22.9 1,117.2
2030 295.7 19.9 491.6 214.0 71.2 23.4 1,115.8
2035 291.4 20.5 500.8 212.4 66.4 23.1 1,114.6
2040 290.2 20.5 507.0 211.8 64.0 23.7 1,117.2
Average length of trips by mode (miles, GB,
RTF13 central forecast)
Year Walk Cycle Car
Dvr
Car
Pgr
Bus Rail Total
2015 0.8 2.5 9.0 9.9 7.8 24.7 7.0
2020 0.8 2.4 9.1 10.0 7.9 24.7 7.1
2025 0.8 2.3 9.2 10.1 8.1 24.6 7.2
2030 0.8 2.3 9.2 10.1 8.0 24.7 7.3
2035 0.8 2.2 9.2 10.1 8.2 24.7 7.3
2040 0.8 2.2 9.2 10.1 8.5 24.8 7.4

Notes on the tables:

These are for personal trips based on main mode of travel. The NTM does not produce mode information for different stages of the same trip.

These forecasts are based on the central forecast in the Road Traffic Forecasts 2013 (see https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/road-transport-forecasts-2013. NTM forecasts of trips by mode for the high and low demand scenarios have not been produced.

The NTM Road Traffic Forecasts should not be viewed as what we think will actually happen in the future, or what we want the future to look like. They are based on our understanding of the way people make travel choices, the expected path of the key drivers at the time the forecast is made and assume no change in government policy beyond that already announced.

The forecasts do not account for the Departments Cycling Delivery Plan, as this is still in development.

The NTM is not the Department’s primary forecasting tool for Rail. Therefore the forecasts may not match with Rail forecasts the Department has published elsewhere.

Written by beleben

November 26, 2014 at 10:55 am

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