Obfuscation of HS2 demand forecasts is not in the public interest
In 2010 there were around 60,000 Virgin Trains West Coast ‘long distance’ passenger journeys each day on the section of the line south of Rugby, according to the April 2012 HS2 Demand and Appraisal report. There were only around 5,000 VTWC journeys to and from Liverpool, and 10,000 from Manchester.
- is “expected to carry over 300,000 people every day” – with ~250,000 of those journeys involving the trunk between Birmingham interchange (Bickenhill) and London
- ‘would – in the year 2036 – attract
- two thirds of passengers who would otherwise travel on the West Coast Main Line,
- one third of those who would otherwise travel on the Midland Main Line, and
- half of those who would otherwise use the East Coast Main Line.’
How these forecasts were arrived at, has never been explained, and the figures look dubious. It cannot be in the public interest for HS2 Ltd to refuse to provide details about current and forecast travel demand.