die belebende Bedenkung

HS2 versus do-minimum, part three

leave a comment »

With all Pendolinos reconfigured to have extra Standard class accommodation, in the ‘Higher Growth Scenario’, passenger load on the London to Birmingham rail service ‘could‘ reach 124% on Friday evenings. In, er, 2033/2034. According to the Department for Transport.

DfT, Nov 2015 report, average load factor forecast for intercity West Coast

For London to Manchester, the figure ‘could’ be 105% (etc).

But what ‘could’ be the load factor, if

(i) all available paths were used, and

(ii) high capacity rolling stock replaced the existing trains?

A 260-metre Hitachi IEP train could offer around 600 Standard Class seats, compared to 444 in the current Class 390/1

As can be seen from the bar chart above, a Hitachi Class 800 IEP train can offer around a third more Standard class seats than current Class 390 Pendolinos (of the same length).

If all available paths were used, and operated by 260-metre IEPs, the indications are that load factors would be well below 100% on all intercity West Coast services, on Friday evenings, in the ‘Higher Growth’ scenario. Neither HS2, nor the Atkins Strategic Alternative, are required to meet foreseeable intercity demand.

Written by beleben

October 3, 2016 at 10:25 am

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: