beleben

die belebende Bedenkung

HS2 and GB rolling stock procurement

with 2 comments

Table 7 of HS2 Ltd’s March 2012 Cost and Risk Model Report estimated that operation of the Y network would need ninety-two captive and sixty-four classic compatible 200-metre trainsets. There would also be fifteen 260-metre classic compatible sets. Since then, the train requirement has been re-cast, but if one thinks in terms of 25-metre carriages, the Y network can still be thought of as (roughly) a 1,400-vehicle procurement.

According to the Long Term Passenger Rolling Stock Strategy Steering Group, the wider GB railway requirement is for between 13,000 and 19,000 new electric vehicles over the 30 years to 2044. Assuming a cost of say £1.8 million per vehicle, the GB rolling stock market to 2044 would be worth something over £23 billion.

However, according to HS2 Ltd, the much smaller train build for the high speed line would cost around £7 billion.

There is no domestic capability to manufacture locomotives, power cars, or intercity carriages. No figures are available, but a Class 378 suburban trainset might be 30 to 50% (?) British by value; and a Desiro City, 3 to 15%.

Therefore,

  1. with the current procurement policy, the GB rail industry could be importing, at least £11 billion of rolling stock in the next thirty years
  2. the vast majority of increased future rail demand would be accommodated on the existing network, not on HS2
  3. HS2 trains would represent a relatively small proportion of total GB orders, in terms of number of carriages, over the next thirty years.
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Written by beleben

March 5, 2015 at 1:07 pm

Posted in High speed rail, HS2

2 Responses

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  1. The “around £7 billion” appears to be £7.5 billion at 2011 prices. Even £7 billion spread over 1400 vehicles amounts to £5 million per vehicle which compares with the typical £1.8 million per vehicle quoted. I am puzzled as to why it should require 92 captive sets just to provide services between London – Birmingham – Manchester – Leeds but without any services between Leeds and Manchester.

    johnma

    March 5, 2015 at 4:56 pm

  2. Why oh why did we get rid of GEC and Metro-Cammell

    Miles

    March 5, 2015 at 9:48 pm


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