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KPMG HS2 regional economic benefits, ‘Low’ case ordering

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(The original table was in pdf format, and this reordered version may contain conversion errors.)

PLD zones (Note 1) Output change

(£m, 2013 prices) (Note 2)

As a proportion of GDP (%)
Ref Name           Low           High           Low           High
117 London Central 1520.495032 1446.951179 0.004176354 0.003974351
130 Manchester including Metrolink area 833.6900364 325.7132722 0.019925433 0.007784641
5 BIRMINGHAM 764.3504717 1547.80461 0.026032693 0.05271603
197 South Lanarkshire 736.1208962 482.5713014 0.101583277 0.066593918
105 LEEDS 562.9918858 437.2430872 0.019895986 0.015452057
139 NOTTINGHAM 430.5025598 797.8016524 0.034749116 0.064396602
123 London West 359.5661404 439.0905749 0.010939336 0.013358765
95 Highland 329.9289493 24.51175568 0.070806801 0.005260524
36 City of Edinburgh 328.4375767 38.4680132 0.011400333 0.001335256
90 Heathrow & Hillingdon 326.3888876 347.6762224 0.017529595 0.018672888
179 SHEFFIELD 319.5678709 473.9923515 0.023934483 0.035500321
14 Berkshire East 318.4726085 108.5037421 0.009473449 0.003227608
141 Newcastle & Rest of Tyne & Wear 304.0322166 78.22537234 0.017346204 0.004463057
92 Hertfordshire ECML 259.4824343 710.5753069 0.011203219 0.030679266
208 Surrey North West 236.7232123 197.2118763 0.010284797 0.008568167
233 Worcestershire 214.0672115 375.2309202 0.018340457 0.032148346
181 SOLIHULL 213.6173776 475.2414097 0.029812597 0.066325037
37 City of Glasgow 201.2389204 -76.97151263 0.008509781 -0.003254891
119 London North East 195.4959045 100.2171492 0.006882895 0.003528381
11 BRADFORD 185.656187 189.9949977 0.015413164 0.015773372
132 Milton Keynes 179.0365153 317.2404807 0.010724794 0.019003603
168 Preston, Fylde, Wyre 178.7728751 141.4577729 0.018194199 0.01439654
222 Warwickshire South 167.4886258 324.1767265 0.017584584 0.034035225
156 Nottinghamshire West 154.7219323 331.7927886 0.02505717 0.053733741
147 North Yorkshire West 143.6613601 68.85428687 0.019259891 0.009230917
121 London South East 142.1698404 73.03503628 0.005078369 0.002608843
29 COVENTRY 136.2153148 255.3041769 0.014835353 0.027805446
94 Hertfordshire WCML 134.9720917 155.6241467 0.009477517 0.01092767
122 London South West 134.6961298 103.1000593 0.005607663 0.004292257
87 Hampshire North 132.2024573 55.78132145 0.007227199 0.003049434
171 ROTHERHAM 131.165241 272.1748618 0.022973227 0.047670669
176 SANDWELL 129.7017905 287.6831158 0.016478983 0.036550963
173 Reading 120.7433104 105.6171863 0.009982597 0.008732027
217 WALSALL 116.7552132 253.1153293 0.018923975 0.041025562
109 Lancashire West 116.0088291 79.86606401 0.015497774 0.010669414
116 Liverpool 114.9484972 -50.18948671 0.011511178 -0.005026078
235 YORK 109.3741934 116.0005685 0.020220696 0.021445755
24 CHARNWOOD 105.0327991 173.7619735 0.024741437 0.040931222
218 WARRINGTON 104.8011168 -17.79203783 0.011911025 -0.002022129
155 Nottinghamshire South & East 101.358395 192.8485621 0.025752201 0.048997174
33 Cannock & Lichfield 97.94022423 233.2712104 0.02486087 0.059212905
45 DERBY CITY 97.55105318 186.4641507 0.013556287 0.025912192
50 Derbyshire North East 96.5301368 179.227986 0.017410942 0.032326983
100 KIRKLEES 92.91958502 182.7956572 0.011817686 0.023248292
187 STOCKPORT 92.90676724 25.12634652 0.011775465 0.003184638
106 LEICESTER 89.93602252 134.0406904 0.00991805 0.014781867
15 Berkshire West 89.33391874 71.12687748 0.009092297 0.007239206
9 BOLTON 89.00257841 34.31462807 0.014636121 0.005642905
19 CALDERDALE 87.74677639 53.14834671 0.013031351 0.007893108
189 SUNDERLAND 85.29766201 56.84751992 0.014702808 0.00979884
47 DUDLEY 83.21982934 137.6923427 0.013796119 0.022826531
191 SWINDON 82.8169176 32.39227405 0.008200092 0.003207311
220 WIGAN 80.86385108 67.59864328 0.013301532 0.011119499
51 Derbyshire West 80.29728886 180.598923 0.018906967 0.0425242
188 STOCKTON-ON-TEES 78.99871936 76.42494437 0.017443549 0.016875239
93 Hertfordshire MML 78.97935207 126.2095807 0.007294861 0.01165724
111 Leicestershire North & West 77.53755136 156.4307764 0.01739949 0.035103194
35 Chester & Ellesmere Port 76.86185905 -29.12336194 0.009256561 -0.00350736
216 WAKEFIELD 75.46875513 114.2831618 0.009334919 0.014135969
124 Luton 71.02417713 109.616521 0.009620128 0.014847409
160 Oxfordshire South 70.68860701 34.30408616 0.006141819 0.002980529
201 Southampton 69.74586046 68.32601855 0.007940811 0.007779157
118 London North 69.28525271 -13.92778688 0.003471956 -0.000697936
108 Lancashire South East 67.30450874 56.4971839 0.013405678 0.01125308
215 VALE ROYAL 67.21703256 92.6251023 0.018514724 0.025513299
148 Northamptonshire WCML 66.83250417 79.5748059 0.004773021 0.005683047
125 MACCLESFIELD 66.50465 41.53790808 0.009271089 0.005790597
170 ROCHDALE 65.40105435 54.43819182 0.013882799 0.011555692
64 EREWASH 65.33668478 175.4268681 0.030211906 0.081117982
221 WOLVERHAMPTON 64.67333535 101.0810939 0.010354837 0.016184077
157 OLDHAM 64.28455658 63.10677239 0.01340478 0.013159185
113 Lincoln City and Coast 62.93271177 115.8519101 0.008686146 0.015990199
212 TELFORD & THE WREKIN 62.04299728 101.4608821 0.012364507 0.02022007
138 NORTH WARWICKSHIRE 61.11602974 127.8710817 0.023867006 0.049936161
210 TAMESIDE 58.89003921 66.99780683 0.014456427 0.016446736
146 North Yorkshire East 58.71421318 63.99365467 0.015826294 0.017249356
140 NUNEATON & BEDWORTH 56.91820566 116.5457009 0.019321107 0.039561893
10 BOURNEMOUTH 56.27278849 69.36883921 0.012766879 0.015738043
42 Crewe 55.31977754 77.74844887 0.012026696 0.01690276
3 BARNSLEY 53.34338002 102.3198747 0.016247439 0.031164803
56 Dorset 52.46141012 56.04775349 0.006973199 0.007449898
61 EAST STAFFORDSHIRE 49.73597368 105.1115004 0.017204346 0.036359489
75 Fife 49.39871338 34.1601678 0.00539561 0.003731169
144 North Lanarkshire 48.91251231 13.91926149 0.005760934 0.001639416
158 Oxford City 47.41423843 39.13767401 0.005705 0.004709143
80 HALTON 46.78237228 23.51466643 0.009724888 0.004888113
44 DARLINGTON 43.91034355 32.45095428 0.019995186 0.014776993
107 Lancashire Ribble & Pendle 43.30650035 26.95748511 0.012745345 0.007933739
153 Nottinghamshire Mansfield 43.20051485 70.775595 0.017061606 0.027952105
86 Hampshire New Forest 42.42301606 46.98464199 0.008999065 0.009966708
7 BLACKBURN 42.30180384 33.20822618 0.014002821 0.010992648
46 DONCASTER 42.2459856 53.20147237 0.006892363 0.008679733
177 SEFTON 42.16762939 -4.189537368 0.012921743 -0.001283831
183 SOUTH DERBYSHIRE 42.03427876 112.1318892 0.018130646 0.048365848
120 London South / Croydon 41.42380261 24.63235752 0.003784868 0.002250644
60 EAST RIDING OF YORKSHIRE 39.92883029 67.91885991 0.006396608 0.010880616
185 ST HELENS 39.82915467 7.765176159 0.011258823 0.002195044
224 West Lothian 37.95773941 37.74440051 0.004350948 0.004326494
150 Northumberland South 37.84816414 36.69812611 0.018139141 0.017587972
232 Wirral 37.62151983 4.218794082 0.010095624 0.001132101
8 BLACKPOOL 37.28376009 20.34628865 0.019227587 0.010492773
211 TAMWORTH 37.2695579 85.28659298 0.02243887 0.05134847
128 MIDDLESBROUGH 35.5666008 23.69250833 0.019884501 0.013245958
39 County Durham ECML 35.51098266 27.60090061 0.010987506 0.008540035
175 Rugby 35.41773326 66.65299492 0.012275031 0.023100506
6 BLABY 34.10721963 42.5006428 0.007985086 0.00995013
48 Denbigh, Flint 33.48669915 19.25889625 0.007068211 0.004065075
159 Oxfordshire North 31.76999679 -15.79986569 0.003176772 -0.001579873
104 Kent West 31.62035116 -132.7139926 0.001017604 -0.004270993
89 Hampshire Winchester 30.76112309 28.80111797 0.006771783 0.006340306
99 KINGSTON UPON HULL 30.38445874 39.00841802 0.005356566 0.00687691
194 Somerset East 30.12940692 10.30291633 0.004221893 0.0014437
152 Nottinghamshire Bassetlaw 29.73966069 54.44119938 0.011311788 0.020707274
43 Cumbria South 29.3214487 -26.69392913 0.0070161 -0.006387381
84 HINCKLEY & BOSWORTH 29.19660488 43.3767311 0.010026861 0.014896679
71 Essex South 28.91494071 -151.1242374 0.000829264 -0.004334156
62 EASTLEIGH 28.84624262 15.9571529 0.00528494 0.002923521
88 Hampshire Test Valley 28.29252105 19.75014616 0.006485391 0.004527253
230 Wiltshire North 27.1365103 -8.194556524 0.006440254 -0.001944798
154 Nottinghamshire Newark & Sherwood 27.01530185 49.03822602 0.00831818 0.015099175
145 North Yorkshire ECML 26.64416964 28.70108692 0.014595204 0.015721947
186 STAFFORD 26.16048324 39.02807712 0.010549678 0.015738763
162 POOLE 25.46674687 27.57831784 0.005884713 0.006372643
101 KNOWSLEY 25.01833171 18.16405401 0.007610285 0.005525294
169 REDCAR & CLEVELAND 24.89949703 37.07188363 0.014862411 0.022128061
21 CARLISLE 23.92029597 10.76310914 0.010517433 0.004732394
41 County Durham West 23.16772603 35.40348285 0.011081675 0.016934328
178 SELBY 22.63936602 41.08172015 0.011741064 0.021305504
49 Derbyshire High Peak 21.53557614 44.14046369 0.014737748 0.030207273
192 Shropshire North 21.4612299 27.47935123 0.010714172 0.013718622
182 SOUTH BEDFORDSHIRE 19.99736059 33.34797753 0.006440076 0.010739593
198 South Staffordshire 19.39756772 36.89141754 0.013594352 0.025854525
127 MID BEDFORDSHIRE 19.38376897 42.96760388 0.005770851 0.012792128
196 South Ayrshire 19.34137467 4.250419231 0.007310381 0.001606514
164 Perth & Kinross 18.82810472 2.020556208 0.005644543 0.00060575
57 Dumfries & Galloway 18.62958748 33.18742256 0.008630577 0.015374824
26 CONGLETON 18.13206401 26.70270523 0.007726075 0.011378026
234 Wrexham 17.91113947 19.66220899 0.00831473 0.009127613
73 FAREHAM 17.7009734 11.46612981 0.004416856 0.002861099
229 West of Glasgow 17.25786032 5.747048969 0.00314011 0.00104569
180 SHREWSBURY & ATCHAM 17.13190428 21.79136158 0.011215511 0.014265855
193 Shropshire South 17.00310034 27.34429658 0.010277156 0.016527669
85 Hampshire East 16.43458151 8.160980467 0.005698658 0.002829804
40 County Durham East 15.96055951 22.57800432 0.01026839 0.014525792
174 Renfrewshire 15.14708068 -1.517380969 0.003664716 -0.000367118
82 HARTLEPOOL 14.2659096 17.60685279 0.012262868 0.015134717
203 Stirling & Clackmannan 13.97790386 -7.735183023 0.004226801 -0.002339055
126 MELTON 13.74166522 24.37459892 0.011573048 0.020527963
67 East Lothian 13.03471837 7.122679103 0.009118533 0.004982723
65 East Ayrshire 12.53057037 0.065918889 0.007194139 3.78458E-05
131 Midlothian 12.51546552 5.408711573 0.008353308 0.003609984
149 Northumberland North 11.75866156 9.122239681 0.022560694 0.017502337
81 HARBOROUGH 11.43351585 8.538408376 0.004225937 0.003155878
207 Surrey East 11.27165861 -30.77635458 0.00067383 -0.001839837
231 Wiltshire South 11.24161974 -19.42264676 0.001306894 -0.002257978
78 Gatwick & Crawley 10.99846247 -31.40460023 0.001161986 -0.003317893
1 ALLERDALE 10.61026809 3.128745915 0.007701872 0.002271121
209 Surrey South West 10.41045685 -5.286197194 0.00100002 -0.000507788
151 Northumberland West 10.05259512 3.375193126 0.014601893 0.004902635
135 NORTH EAST LINCOLNSHIRE 9.046916949 3.538943267 0.002405992 0.000941168
34 Cheltenham & Cotswold 9.031720317 -2.786223236 0.001584206 -0.000488717
70 Essex East 8.474943987 -29.5740083 0.000627153 -0.002188501
223 West Dumbartonshire 7.945999057 -1.02168039 0.005971717 -0.000767831
68 East Renfrewshire 7.374882075 -1.952049384 0.006523673 -0.001726744
66 East Dunbartonshire 7.228113514 -2.980910082 0.007100619 -0.002928331
110 Lancaster 7.130441667 -45.50608041 0.003028115 -0.019325261
112 Leicestershire South 6.787787121 1.000768201 0.005935047 0.000875043
63 EDEN 5.378632251 -2.604564938 0.005616639 -0.002719818
23 CEREDIGION 5.088721561 0.533218366 0.005442497 0.000570289
77 GWYNEDD 4.768607002 -3.208657303 0.00294507 -0.001981652
102 Kent Ashford & Shepway 2.727230362 -19.76840119 0.00039684 -0.002876504
96 ISLE OF ANGLESEY 2.558540522 -1.879596527 0.002999619 -0.002203629
202 Stansted & Uttlesford 2.325177918 -31.34275178 0.000733558 -0.009888159
115 Lincolnshire South West 2.285842848 13.70707287 0.000774805 0.004646124
136 NORTH LINCOLNSHIRE 2.170976065 -16.48559032 0.000524282 -0.0039812
76 GOSPORT 1.959262921 -0.068501556 0.001583465 -5.53626E-05
213 TEWKESBURY 1.458407483 -28.09794401 0.000387349 -0.007462746
27 CONWY 1.234390638 -9.735333813 0.000994413 -0.00784269
83 HAVANT -0.256499722 -4.134615923 -8.37264E-05 -0.001349618
172 RUTLAND -0.684094573 -5.319735712 -0.000944087 -0.00734152
167 Portsmouth -1.140089914 -4.764247427 -0.000177718 -0.000742655
225 West Sussex Central -1.224920928 -12.06083402 -0.000281932 -0.002775962
103 Kent East -1.34452644 -6.524098806 -0.000154222 -0.000748337
97 Isle of Wight -2.267039416 -1.348659445 -0.000779646 -0.00046381
4 BATH & NE SOMERSET -3.335909742 -20.1986924 -0.000585578 -0.003545634
91 Herefordshire -3.539582611 -12.87943819 -0.000941553 -0.003426019
226 West Sussex Chichester -3.748250288 -4.127355631 -0.001289771 -0.001420221
228 West Sussex Horsham -3.830480737 -14.38468348 -0.000978769 -0.003675592
205 Suffolk Main -4.665787872 -14.89540815 -0.00029247 -0.000933702
195 Somerset West -5.204473692 -8.520686342 -0.000949959 -0.001555259
129 MONMOUTHSHIRE -5.336643861 -8.435857594 -0.003493401 -0.005522167
163 POWYS -5.615241236 -2.771080121 -0.003693245 -0.001822589
200 South Wales East -5.827077143 -18.15946642 -0.002887323 -0.008998037
17 Brighton & Hove -5.837335549 -12.84050455 -0.000569135 -0.001251937
52 Devon -6.01105769 -1.426007748 -0.002336671 -0.00055433
133 NEATH PORT TALBOT -6.148168326 -5.823686733 -0.003032854 -0.002872789
214 VALE OF GLAMORGAN -6.296643796 -7.072606551 -0.004844466 -0.005441471
59 EAST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE -6.994491614 -28.75411479 -0.003757713 -0.01544783
72 Exeter -7.372997162 -3.942972101 -0.001529278 -0.000817836
219 WELLINGBOROUGH -7.877325439 -39.5259928 -0.003248927 -0.016302117
16 Borders -8.923850774 6.394274325 -0.00516837 0.003703332
204 Stoke & Staffordshire North -8.9956635 -78.37863971 -0.001054228 -0.009185425
161 PEMBROKESHIRE -9.381986452 -0.479883286 -0.005756927 -0.000294464
227 West Sussex Coast -9.628034904 -10.85641368 -0.001083044 -0.001221223
12 BRIDGEND -10.78205283 -9.517401195 -0.004620152 -0.004078244
137 NORTH SOMERSET -11.87052206 -23.8903577 -0.001863886 -0.003751217
22 CARMARTHENSHIRE -12.14283475 -5.227518621 -0.004225667 -0.00181916
114 Lincolnshire South East -13.42295236 -32.98612028 -0.00371867 -0.009138413
53 Devon East -13.44994613 -9.27796227 -0.003162373 -0.00218145
55 Devon South West -14.00671132 -2.125658744 -0.002284764 -0.000346736
166 Plymouth -14.14953452 -2.379057727 -0.002536638 -0.000426502
18 Buckinghamshire -14.82056114 -92.94635977 -0.000742303 -0.004655316
28 CORBY -14.82243583 -84.38940961 -0.004978787 -0.028346009
31 Cambridgeshire East -14.87062477 -28.84453591 -0.007782195 -0.015095116
69 East Sussex -15.01391928 -16.37887399 -0.001237755 -0.001350282
13 Bedfordshire North -15.88025052 -63.13771719 -0.003155134 -0.012544382
190 SWANSEA -16.4280589 -10.57304181 -0.004176848 -0.002688205
184 SOUTH GLOUCESTERSHIRE -17.04022535 -83.06250526 -0.001195368 -0.005826818
98 KETTERING -17.25128487 -50.72773786 -0.007933518 -0.023328663
74 Falkirk -17.60796011 -1.28828701 -0.004391969 -0.000321339
134 NEWPORT -17.65068133 -36.41774471 -0.003909855 -0.008067003
54 Devon North West -18.54330628 -4.382003738 -0.005060227 -0.001195792
38 Cornwall -19.25338457 -1.05398298 -0.001725216 -9.44431E-05
199 South Wales Central -23.0411993 -28.37086863 -0.003988463 -0.004911036
32 Cambridgeshire North & West -24.78498341 -79.32316186 -0.003329114 -0.010654671
165 Peterborough -34.07821552 -65.63098854 -0.003394352 -0.006537157
79 Gloucester, Stroud, Forest of Dean -34.38007631 -81.01847257 -0.004133584 -0.00974101
206 Suffolk West -39.37392104 -62.81939743 -0.009061849 -0.01445779
30 Cambridge City & South -40.24038827 -126.8893567 -0.003419524 -0.010782728
25 CITY OF BRISTOL -42.993983 -101.2679404 -0.001949454 -0.00459174
143 Norfolk West -55.65492437 -65.01855203 -0.009005706 -0.010520865
20 CARDIFF -67.95367478 -70.05546521 -0.005827076 -0.006007306
58 Dundee & Angus -96.46337634 -0.718329845 -0.01871554 -0.000139368
142 Norfolk East -164.4690758 -133.3376028 -0.008317422 -0.006743061
2 Aberdeen City, Aberdeenshire & Moray -220.4828956 40.33408246 -0.013308279 0.002434553

Note 1: The analysis uses data from HS2 Ltd’s assessment of the direct transport impacts of the scheme as reflected in the PLANET Long Distance (PLD) Model, which considers rail and car travel between 235 different geographic zones. A map of these zones is provided in a separate sheet ‘Map of PLD Zones’.

Note 2: Estimated change in output is measured in terms of the potential impact of investment in HS2 on annual economic output for each zone. Estimates are presented in 2013 prices for a forecast year of 2037 (undiscounted). The ‘low’/’high’ scenarios reflect different estimates of buyers’ sensitivity to purchase costs and transport costs: a ‘high’ business location scenarioimplies that buyers are more sensitive to purchase costs and transport costs, and a ‘low’ scenario implies that they are less sensitive.

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Written by beleben

March 11, 2014 at 11:05 am

Posted in High speed rail, HS2

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