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KPMG HS2 regional economic benefits, alphabetical list

with one comment

Although KPMG’s September 2013 Regional Economic Impacts report was extensively criticised, HS2 Ltd continued to present its findings as if they were fact. Following a freedom of information request from the BBC, the report’s output results for 235 ‘PLANET Long Distance’ zones in Great Britain were made public.

[KPMG]

The results are shown with ‘low’ and ‘high’ business location effects; where business location is driven by buyers’ sensitivity to purchase costs and transport costs. The higher the production costs in a given area and the higher the transport costs to access that area, the less likely a buyer is to trade with the businesses there.

(The original table was in pdf format, and this reordered version may contain conversion errors.)

PLD zones (Note 1) Output change
(£m, 2013 prices) (Note 2)
As a proportion of GDP
Ref Name           Low           High           Low           High
1 ALLERDALE 10.61026809 3.128745915 0.007701872 0.002271121
2 Aberdeen City, Aberdeenshire & Moray -220.4828956 40.33408246 -0.013308279 0.002434553
3 BARNSLEY 53.34338002 102.3198747 0.016247439 0.031164803
4 BATH & NE SOMERSET -3.335909742 -20.1986924 -0.000585578 -0.003545634
5 BIRMINGHAM 764.3504717 1547.80461 0.026032693 0.05271603
6 BLABY 34.10721963 42.5006428 0.007985086 0.00995013
7 BLACKBURN 42.30180384 33.20822618 0.014002821 0.010992648
8 BLACKPOOL 37.28376009 20.34628865 0.019227587 0.010492773
9 BOLTON 89.00257841 34.31462807 0.014636121 0.005642905
10 BOURNEMOUTH 56.27278849 69.36883921 0.012766879 0.015738043
11 BRADFORD 185.656187 189.9949977 0.015413164 0.015773372
12 BRIDGEND -10.78205283 -9.517401195 -0.004620152 -0.004078244
13 Bedfordshire North -15.88025052 -63.13771719 -0.003155134 -0.012544382
14 Berkshire East 318.4726085 108.5037421 0.009473449 0.003227608
15 Berkshire West 89.33391874 71.12687748 0.009092297 0.007239206
16 Borders -8.923850774 6.394274325 -0.00516837 0.003703332
17 Brighton & Hove -5.837335549 -12.84050455 -0.000569135 -0.001251937
18 Buckinghamshire -14.82056114 -92.94635977 -0.000742303 -0.004655316
19 CALDERDALE 87.74677639 53.14834671 0.013031351 0.007893108
20 CARDIFF -67.95367478 -70.05546521 -0.005827076 -0.006007306
21 CARLISLE 23.92029597 10.76310914 0.010517433 0.004732394
22 CARMARTHENSHIRE -12.14283475 -5.227518621 -0.004225667 -0.00181916
23 CEREDIGION 5.088721561 0.533218366 0.005442497 0.000570289
24 CHARNWOOD 105.0327991 173.7619735 0.024741437 0.040931222
25 CITY OF BRISTOL -42.993983 -101.2679404 -0.001949454 -0.00459174
26 CONGLETON 18.13206401 26.70270523 0.007726075 0.011378026
27 CONWY 1.234390638 -9.735333813 0.000994413 -0.00784269
28 CORBY -14.82243583 -84.38940961 -0.004978787 -0.028346009
29 COVENTRY 136.2153148 255.3041769 0.014835353 0.027805446
30 Cambridge City & South -40.24038827 -126.8893567 -0.003419524 -0.010782728
31 Cambridgeshire East -14.87062477 -28.84453591 -0.007782195 -0.015095116
32 Cambridgeshire North & West -24.78498341 -79.32316186 -0.003329114 -0.010654671
33 Cannock & Lichfield 97.94022423 233.2712104 0.02486087 0.059212905
34 Cheltenham & Cotswold 9.031720317 -2.786223236 0.001584206 -0.000488717
35 Chester & Ellesmere Port 76.86185905 -29.12336194 0.009256561 -0.00350736
36 City of Edinburgh 328.4375767 38.4680132 0.011400333 0.001335256
37 City of Glasgow 201.2389204 -76.97151263 0.008509781 -0.003254891
38 Cornwall -19.25338457 -1.05398298 -0.001725216 -9.44431E-05
39 County Durham ECML 35.51098266 27.60090061 0.010987506 0.008540035
40 County Durham East 15.96055951 22.57800432 0.01026839 0.014525792
41 County Durham West 23.16772603 35.40348285 0.011081675 0.016934328
42 Crewe 55.31977754 77.74844887 0.012026696 0.01690276
43 Cumbria South 29.3214487 -26.69392913 0.0070161 -0.006387381
44 DARLINGTON 43.91034355 32.45095428 0.019995186 0.014776993
45 DERBY CITY 97.55105318 186.4641507 0.013556287 0.025912192
46 DONCASTER 42.2459856 53.20147237 0.006892363 0.008679733
47 DUDLEY 83.21982934 137.6923427 0.013796119 0.022826531
48 Denbigh, Flint 33.48669915 19.25889625 0.007068211 0.004065075
49 Derbyshire High Peak 21.53557614 44.14046369 0.014737748 0.030207273
50 Derbyshire North East 96.5301368 179.227986 0.017410942 0.032326983
51 Derbyshire West 80.29728886 180.598923 0.018906967 0.0425242
52 Devon -6.01105769 -1.426007748 -0.002336671 -0.00055433
53 Devon East -13.44994613 -9.27796227 -0.003162373 -0.00218145
54 Devon North West -18.54330628 -4.382003738 -0.005060227 -0.001195792
55 Devon South West -14.00671132 -2.125658744 -0.002284764 -0.000346736
56 Dorset 52.46141012 56.04775349 0.006973199 0.007449898
57 Dumfries & Galloway 18.62958748 33.18742256 0.008630577 0.015374824
58 Dundee & Angus -96.46337634 -0.718329845 -0.01871554 -0.000139368
59 EAST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE -6.994491614 -28.75411479 -0.003757713 -0.01544783
60 EAST RIDING OF YORKSHIRE 39.92883029 67.91885991 0.006396608 0.010880616
61 EAST STAFFORDSHIRE 49.73597368 105.1115004 0.017204346 0.036359489
62 EASTLEIGH 28.84624262 15.9571529 0.00528494 0.002923521
63 EDEN 5.378632251 -2.604564938 0.005616639 -0.002719818
64 EREWASH 65.33668478 175.4268681 0.030211906 0.081117982
65 East Ayrshire 12.53057037 0.065918889 0.007194139 3.78458E-05
66 East Dunbartonshire 7.228113514 -2.980910082 0.007100619 -0.002928331
67 East Lothian 13.03471837 7.122679103 0.009118533 0.004982723
68 East Renfrewshire 7.374882075 -1.952049384 0.006523673 -0.001726744
69 East Sussex -15.01391928 -16.37887399 -0.001237755 -0.001350282
70 Essex East 8.474943987 -29.5740083 0.000627153 -0.002188501
71 Essex South 28.91494071 -151.1242374 0.000829264 -0.004334156
72 Exeter -7.372997162 -3.942972101 -0.001529278 -0.000817836
73 FAREHAM 17.7009734 11.46612981 0.004416856 0.002861099
74 Falkirk -17.60796011 -1.28828701 -0.004391969 -0.000321339
75 Fife 49.39871338 34.1601678 0.00539561 0.003731169
76 GOSPORT 1.959262921 -0.068501556 0.001583465 -5.53626E-05
77 GWYNEDD 4.768607002 -3.208657303 0.00294507 -0.001981652
78 Gatwick & Crawley 10.99846247 -31.40460023 0.001161986 -0.003317893
79 Gloucester, Stroud, Forest of Dean -34.38007631 -81.01847257 -0.004133584 -0.00974101
80 HALTON 46.78237228 23.51466643 0.009724888 0.004888113
81 HARBOROUGH 11.43351585 8.538408376 0.004225937 0.003155878
82 HARTLEPOOL 14.2659096 17.60685279 0.012262868 0.015134717
83 HAVANT -0.256499722 -4.134615923 -8.37264E-05 -0.001349618
84 HINCKLEY & BOSWORTH 29.19660488 43.3767311 0.010026861 0.014896679
85 Hampshire East 16.43458151 8.160980467 0.005698658 0.002829804
86 Hampshire New Forest 42.42301606 46.98464199 0.008999065 0.009966708
87 Hampshire North 132.2024573 55.78132145 0.007227199 0.003049434
88 Hampshire Test Valley 28.29252105 19.75014616 0.006485391 0.004527253
89 Hampshire Winchester 30.76112309 28.80111797 0.006771783 0.006340306
90 Heathrow & Hillingdon 326.3888876 347.6762224 0.017529595 0.018672888
91 Herefordshire -3.539582611 -12.87943819 -0.000941553 -0.003426019
92 Hertfordshire ECML 259.4824343 710.5753069 0.011203219 0.030679266
93 Hertfordshire MML 78.97935207 126.2095807 0.007294861 0.01165724
94 Hertfordshire WCML 134.9720917 155.6241467 0.009477517 0.01092767
95 Highland 329.9289493 24.51175568 0.070806801 0.005260524
96 ISLE OF ANGLESEY 2.558540522 -1.879596527 0.002999619 -0.002203629
97 Isle of Wight -2.267039416 -1.348659445 -0.000779646 -0.00046381
98 KETTERING -17.25128487 -50.72773786 -0.007933518 -0.023328663
99 KINGSTON UPON HULL 30.38445874 39.00841802 0.005356566 0.00687691
100 KIRKLEES 92.91958502 182.7956572 0.011817686 0.023248292
101 KNOWSLEY 25.01833171 18.16405401 0.007610285 0.005525294
102 Kent Ashford & Shepway 2.727230362 -19.76840119 0.00039684 -0.002876504
103 Kent East -1.34452644 -6.524098806 -0.000154222 -0.000748337
104 Kent West 31.62035116 -132.7139926 0.001017604 -0.004270993
105 LEEDS 562.9918858 437.2430872 0.019895986 0.015452057
106 LEICESTER 89.93602252 134.0406904 0.00991805 0.014781867
107 Lancashire Ribble & Pendle 43.30650035 26.95748511 0.012745345 0.007933739
108 Lancashire South East 67.30450874 56.4971839 0.013405678 0.01125308
109 Lancashire West 116.0088291 79.86606401 0.015497774 0.010669414
110 Lancaster 7.130441667 -45.50608041 0.003028115 -0.019325261
111 Leicestershire North & West 77.53755136 156.4307764 0.01739949 0.035103194
112 Leicestershire South 6.787787121 1.000768201 0.005935047 0.000875043
113 Lincoln City and Coast 62.93271177 115.8519101 0.008686146 0.015990199
114 Lincolnshire South East -13.42295236 -32.98612028 -0.00371867 -0.009138413
115 Lincolnshire South West 2.285842848 13.70707287 0.000774805 0.004646124
116 Liverpool 114.9484972 -50.18948671 0.011511178 -0.005026078
117 London Central 1520.495032 1446.951179 0.004176354 0.003974351
118 London North 69.28525271 -13.92778688 0.003471956 -0.000697936
119 London North East 195.4959045 100.2171492 0.006882895 0.003528381
120 London South / Croydon 41.42380261 24.63235752 0.003784868 0.002250644
121 London South East 142.1698404 73.03503628 0.005078369 0.002608843
122 London South West 134.6961298 103.1000593 0.005607663 0.004292257
123 London West 359.5661404 439.0905749 0.010939336 0.013358765
124 Luton 71.02417713 109.616521 0.009620128 0.014847409
125 MACCLESFIELD 66.50465 41.53790808 0.009271089 0.005790597
126 MELTON 13.74166522 24.37459892 0.011573048 0.020527963
127 MID BEDFORDSHIRE 19.38376897 42.96760388 0.005770851 0.012792128
128 MIDDLESBROUGH 35.5666008 23.69250833 0.019884501 0.013245958
129 MONMOUTHSHIRE -5.336643861 -8.435857594 -0.003493401 -0.005522167
130 Manchester including Metrolink area 833.6900364 325.7132722 0.019925433 0.007784641
131 Midlothian 12.51546552 5.408711573 0.008353308 0.003609984
132 Milton Keynes 179.0365153 317.2404807 0.010724794 0.019003603
133 NEATH PORT TALBOT -6.148168326 -5.823686733 -0.003032854 -0.002872789
134 NEWPORT -17.65068133 -36.41774471 -0.003909855 -0.008067003
135 NORTH EAST LINCOLNSHIRE 9.046916949 3.538943267 0.002405992 0.000941168
136 NORTH LINCOLNSHIRE 2.170976065 -16.48559032 0.000524282 -0.0039812
137 NORTH SOMERSET -11.87052206 -23.8903577 -0.001863886 -0.003751217
138 NORTH WARWICKSHIRE 61.11602974 127.8710817 0.023867006 0.049936161
139 NOTTINGHAM 430.5025598 797.8016524 0.034749116 0.064396602
140 NUNEATON & BEDWORTH 56.91820566 116.5457009 0.019321107 0.039561893
141 Newcastle & Rest of Tyne & Wear 304.0322166 78.22537234 0.017346204 0.004463057
142 Norfolk East -164.4690758 -133.3376028 -0.008317422 -0.006743061
143 Norfolk West -55.65492437 -65.01855203 -0.009005706 -0.010520865
144 North Lanarkshire 48.91251231 13.91926149 0.005760934 0.001639416
145 North Yorkshire ECML 26.64416964 28.70108692 0.014595204 0.015721947
146 North Yorkshire East 58.71421318 63.99365467 0.015826294 0.017249356
147 North Yorkshire West 143.6613601 68.85428687 0.019259891 0.009230917
148 Northamptonshire WCML 66.83250417 79.5748059 0.004773021 0.005683047
149 Northumberland North 11.75866156 9.122239681 0.022560694 0.017502337
150 Northumberland South 37.84816414 36.69812611 0.018139141 0.017587972
151 Northumberland West 10.05259512 3.375193126 0.014601893 0.004902635
152 Nottinghamshire Bassetlaw 29.73966069 54.44119938 0.011311788 0.020707274
153 Nottinghamshire Mansfield 43.20051485 70.775595 0.017061606 0.027952105
154 Nottinghamshire Newark & Sherwood 27.01530185 49.03822602 0.00831818 0.015099175
155 Nottinghamshire South & East 101.358395 192.8485621 0.025752201 0.048997174
156 Nottinghamshire West 154.7219323 331.7927886 0.02505717 0.053733741
157 OLDHAM 64.28455658 63.10677239 0.01340478 0.013159185
158 Oxford City 47.41423843 39.13767401 0.005705 0.004709143
159 Oxfordshire North 31.76999679 -15.79986569 0.003176772 -0.001579873
160 Oxfordshire South 70.68860701 34.30408616 0.006141819 0.002980529
161 PEMBROKESHIRE -9.381986452 -0.479883286 -0.005756927 -0.000294464
162 POOLE 25.46674687 27.57831784 0.005884713 0.006372643
163 POWYS -5.615241236 -2.771080121 -0.003693245 -0.001822589
164 Perth & Kinross 18.82810472 2.020556208 0.005644543 0.00060575
165 Peterborough -34.07821552 -65.63098854 -0.003394352 -0.006537157
166 Plymouth -14.14953452 -2.379057727 -0.002536638 -0.000426502
167 Portsmouth -1.140089914 -4.764247427 -0.000177718 -0.000742655
168 Preston, Fylde, Wyre 178.7728751 141.4577729 0.018194199 0.01439654
169 REDCAR & CLEVELAND 24.89949703 37.07188363 0.014862411 0.022128061
170 ROCHDALE 65.40105435 54.43819182 0.013882799 0.011555692
171 ROTHERHAM 131.165241 272.1748618 0.022973227 0.047670669
172 RUTLAND -0.684094573 -5.319735712 -0.000944087 -0.00734152
173 Reading 120.7433104 105.6171863 0.009982597 0.008732027
174 Renfrewshire 15.14708068 -1.517380969 0.003664716 -0.000367118
175 Rugby 35.41773326 66.65299492 0.012275031 0.023100506
176 SANDWELL 129.7017905 287.6831158 0.016478983 0.036550963
177 SEFTON 42.16762939 -4.189537368 0.012921743 -0.001283831
178 SELBY 22.63936602 41.08172015 0.011741064 0.021305504
179 SHEFFIELD 319.5678709 473.9923515 0.023934483 0.035500321
180 SHREWSBURY & ATCHAM 17.13190428 21.79136158 0.011215511 0.014265855
181 SOLIHULL 213.6173776 475.2414097 0.029812597 0.066325037
182 SOUTH BEDFORDSHIRE 19.99736059 33.34797753 0.006440076 0.010739593
183 SOUTH DERBYSHIRE 42.03427876 112.1318892 0.018130646 0.048365848
184 SOUTH GLOUCESTERSHIRE -17.04022535 -83.06250526 -0.001195368 -0.005826818
185 ST HELENS 39.82915467 7.765176159 0.011258823 0.002195044
186 STAFFORD 26.16048324 39.02807712 0.010549678 0.015738763
187 STOCKPORT 92.90676724 25.12634652 0.011775465 0.003184638
188 STOCKTON-ON-TEES 78.99871936 76.42494437 0.017443549 0.016875239
189 SUNDERLAND 85.29766201 56.84751992 0.014702808 0.00979884
190 SWANSEA -16.4280589 -10.57304181 -0.004176848 -0.002688205
191 SWINDON 82.8169176 32.39227405 0.008200092 0.003207311
192 Shropshire North 21.4612299 27.47935123 0.010714172 0.013718622
193 Shropshire South 17.00310034 27.34429658 0.010277156 0.016527669
194 Somerset East 30.12940692 10.30291633 0.004221893 0.0014437
195 Somerset West -5.204473692 -8.520686342 -0.000949959 -0.001555259
196 South Ayrshire 19.34137467 4.250419231 0.007310381 0.001606514
197 South Lanarkshire 736.1208962 482.5713014 0.101583277 0.066593918
198 South Staffordshire 19.39756772 36.89141754 0.013594352 0.025854525
199 South Wales Central -23.0411993 -28.37086863 -0.003988463 -0.004911036
200 South Wales East -5.827077143 -18.15946642 -0.002887323 -0.008998037
201 Southampton 69.74586046 68.32601855 0.007940811 0.007779157
202 Stansted & Uttlesford 2.325177918 -31.34275178 0.000733558 -0.009888159
203 Stirling & Clackmannan 13.97790386 -7.735183023 0.004226801 -0.002339055
204 Stoke & Staffordshire North -8.9956635 -78.37863971 -0.001054228 -0.009185425
205 Suffolk Main -4.665787872 -14.89540815 -0.00029247 -0.000933702
206 Suffolk West -39.37392104 -62.81939743 -0.009061849 -0.01445779
207 Surrey East 11.27165861 -30.77635458 0.00067383 -0.001839837
208 Surrey North West 236.7232123 197.2118763 0.010284797 0.008568167
209 Surrey South West 10.41045685 -5.286197194 0.00100002 -0.000507788
210 TAMESIDE 58.89003921 66.99780683 0.014456427 0.016446736
211 TAMWORTH 37.2695579 85.28659298 0.02243887 0.05134847
212 TELFORD & THE WREKIN 62.04299728 101.4608821 0.012364507 0.02022007
213 TEWKESBURY 1.458407483 -28.09794401 0.000387349 -0.007462746
214 VALE OF GLAMORGAN -6.296643796 -7.072606551 -0.004844466 -0.005441471
215 VALE ROYAL 67.21703256 92.6251023 0.018514724 0.025513299
216 WAKEFIELD 75.46875513 114.2831618 0.009334919 0.014135969
217 WALSALL 116.7552132 253.1153293 0.018923975 0.041025562
218 WARRINGTON 104.8011168 -17.79203783 0.011911025 -0.002022129
219 WELLINGBOROUGH -7.877325439 -39.5259928 -0.003248927 -0.016302117
220 WIGAN 80.86385108 67.59864328 0.013301532 0.011119499
221 WOLVERHAMPTON 64.67333535 101.0810939 0.010354837 0.016184077
222 Warwickshire South 167.4886258 324.1767265 0.017584584 0.034035225
223 West Dumbartonshire 7.945999057 -1.02168039 0.005971717 -0.000767831
224 West Lothian 37.95773941 37.74440051 0.004350948 0.004326494
225 West Sussex Central -1.224920928 -12.06083402 -0.000281932 -0.002775962
226 West Sussex Chichester -3.748250288 -4.127355631 -0.001289771 -0.001420221
227 West Sussex Coast -9.628034904 -10.85641368 -0.001083044 -0.001221223
228 West Sussex Horsham -3.830480737 -14.38468348 -0.000978769 -0.003675592
229 West of Glasgow 17.25786032 5.747048969 0.00314011 0.00104569
230 Wiltshire North 27.1365103 -8.194556524 0.006440254 -0.001944798
231 Wiltshire South 11.24161974 -19.42264676 0.001306894 -0.002257978
232 Wirral 37.62151983 4.218794082 0.010095624 0.001132101
233 Worcestershire 214.0672115 375.2309202 0.018340457 0.032148346
234 Wrexham 17.91113947 19.66220899 0.00831473 0.009127613
235 YORK 109.3741934 116.0005685 0.020220696 0.021445755

Note 1: The analysis uses data from HS2 Ltd’s assessment of the direct transport impacts of the scheme as reflected in the PLANET Long Distance (PLD) Model, which considers rail and car travel between 235 different geographic zones. A map of these zones is provided in a separate sheet ‘Map of PLD Zones’.

Note 2: Estimated change in output is measured in terms of the potential impact of investment in HS2 on annual economic output for each zone. Estimates are presented in 2013 prices for a forecast year of 2037 (undiscounted). The ‘low’/’high’ scenarios reflect different estimates of buyers’ sensitivity to purchase costs and transport costs: a ‘high’ business location scenarioimplies that buyers are more sensitive to purchase costs and transport costs, and a ‘low’ scenario implies that they are less sensitive.

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Written by beleben

March 11, 2014 at 11:03 am

Posted in HS2

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One Response

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  1. The totals of High and Low numbers are the same, at circa £15bn, which is peculiar, but never mind.

    However derived, the extraordinary £15 billion WEBs per year claimed by KPMG can only arise from generated, or new, business and commuter trips (the supply side) because all other such trips, and their WEBs, (obviously) pre-exist.

    HS2 Ltd tell us that new, or generated, trips total 76,000 per day. The organisation claims not to know the proportion of those which are for commuting and business, although without the data no economic analysis could be carried out. Fortunately we have an estimate of 30% from previous studies. Hence the new business or commuting trips may number circa 23,000 per day. For such trips there are an effective 255 days per year providing an annual total for these new business plus commuter trips of circa 5.8 million.

    Dividing KPMG’s £15bn by the 5.8 million provides an average value for these new business or commuter trips of circa £2,700, or £5,400 per round trip. That value is 19 times the average for the nation as a whole (1), illustrating how unbelievable the £15bn is.

    After all:

    • The £5,400 per round trip is in excess of what would have been achieved had the individuals stayed in their offices.
    • These new trips arise only because journey times will have been reduced somewhat.
    • Pre-existing trips did not need such an encouragement. Hence they will have higher WEBs, possibly double the average for the new trips, implying an average value attributable to a pre-existing business or commuter trips on the West Coast Main Line 38 times that for the nation as a whole.

    Charitably KPMG did not carry out such a reality test. Had it done so it would never published the £15bn, or at least not with a straight face.

    Is there if not fraud here, or at least miss-selling on a gigantic scale?

    Footnote
    (1)The nation’s GDP is circa £1,500 billion. National Travel Survey data provides 177 commuter plus business trips per head by all modes in 2012. The population is 60 million. Hence the value per trip is £1,500 billion divided by 60 million and by 177, providing £140 per trip, or £280 per round trip. The £280 is 19 times less than the supposed £5,400 average for the trips generated by HS2

    transportwatch

    March 11, 2014 at 2:37 pm


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