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Unacknowledged HS2 pathing problems

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Shortcomings in the HS2 economic case are increasingly well known, but problems with the operating and capacity modelling have received little attention, even in the railway press.

Certainly, transport secretary Patrick McLoughlin seems to be completely unaware of the issues. On 7 November, he took questions from MPs. Asked about the HS2 to HS1 connection, he answered

We believe the three trains per hour that will be able to go directly from Birmingham, Manchester or Leeds to Paris or Brussels or other European destinations is a very positive move.

According to HS2 Ltd, each track would ultimately be able to carry 18 trains in an hour. However, if three HS1 trains were added to the October 2013 modelled service pattern, the result would be 19 trains per hour on the trunk (see diagram).

HS2 Ltd, Oct 2013 Y network service pattern with sample three HS1 services added in

If two Northern England to Heathrow Airport services were assumed to run on the trunk, in addition to the HS1 services, the loading would increase to 21 per hour.

When the nature of the HS2 to HS1 link is factored in, it’s unlikely that Mr McLoughlin’s three trains per direction an hour could operate.


Written by beleben

November 11, 2013 at 11:56 am

Posted in High speed rail, HS2

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  1. […] Y network October 2013 modelled service pattern showed only five trains per hour, per direction, stopping at Middle Bickenhill. Even with limited numbers […]

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